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Fantasy & Reality: Seismic shift in Houston?
Arian Foster is a Fantasy owner's dream come true.
I mean, you've dreamt about this, right? The guy you draft outside of the first few rounds going triple-bananas in his first game, getting you off to a 1-0 start. (Am I the only one who dreams about Fantasy Football?)
But Foster was a nightmare for Matt Schaub owners. Ditto that for[link widoczny dla zalogowanych] and, to a lesser extent, Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels. Because Foster was able to slice through the Colts like a hot, sharp object through a butter-like substance, Schaub & Co. weren't putting the ball in the air much. Schaub had the fewest pass attempts of any starting quarterback who didn't leave hurt in Week 1 -- and it leads to the disturbing idea that if Foster continues to mow down defenses, Schaub's arm won't get worked out nearly as often as last season.
In 2009, Schaub attempted 583 passes and had at least 30 attempts in 14 games (and at least 39 attempts in nine games). That's a huge reason why he led the NFL in passing yards and was a Top-5 Fantasy passer in standard leagues. It's also a huge reason why [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] had over 100 catches, nine touchdowns and over 1,500 receiving yards. It's why Owen Daniels was on his way to a career year last season and why Jacoby Jones did have a career season. And it's why all of these guys were drafted where they were by the masses a month ago.
"You got to do what you got to do to win," Texans head coach and 2009 Fantasy Football nemesis Gary Kubiak said Monday. "There was no doubt once we started the second half and throughout that first drive we had some momentum running the football. We weren't going to stop. ... It just kind of ended up that way with the way we were playing in the second half and the confidence that we had running the ball."
Does this sound like a coach who will lean on his pass game no matter what? Not exactly. He sounds like a coach who will utilize the run if it's working, then move to his pass game. And it sounds like a smart coach. In fact, I'm reminded of what he told me in the spring about his philosophy for coming up with offense gameplans:
"It's common sense. [Is an opponent] dead last against the pass? Well, are you going to beat your head into the wall or are you going to do something else?"
Like any good offensive schemer, Kubiak will analyze his opponents and attack their weaknesses. This is something he couldn't do last year because the Texans' run game was a major deficiency -- thus the big numbers by Schaub, [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Daniels and Jones. Foster changes the game in that respect, way more than initially believed, because he's so effective and Kubiak won't hesitate to trust him.
This does not spell the end for the Texans pass game,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], namely because they won't play the Colts every week. But because Houston has a good offensive line and finally found a running back they can potentially go wire-to-wire with this season, they're not going to have to throw in those matchups against so-so defenses, and that will hurt the output of Schaub and their receivers.
Their Week 2 game at Washington will be an interesting case study since their defense appears to be much better than the Colts. After the Redskins slammed the Cowboys' run game on Sunday night, will Kubiak try to "beat his head into the wall" with a big dose of Foster, or will he go with Schaub and [link widoczny dla zalogowanych] battling the Redskins' secondary? Throw in ex-Texans offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan now working with the Redskins, and you almost have to figure that Kubiak's going to have to come up with some new wrinkles, and it won't entirely involve Foster. Schaub, [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Daniels and Jones still look relatively safe.
Here's the deal: If you drafted Schaub, Andre Johnson Jersey , Daniels or Jones, keep 'em. Don't trade 'em. But if there's a nervous owner in your league who thinks the sky is falling on the Texans pass game, you should be gracious enough to take their studs off their hands at a slight discount.
That said, there will be weeks where Foster, if he continues to play effectively, will get love from Kubiak and dwarf his teammates' production. Take Week 4, for example, when the Texans visit the Raiders. Or Week 6 when the Chiefs come to Reliant Stadium. Or that Week 8 game at Indianapolis. Matchups that previously could have yielded over 250 yards and two touchdowns for Schaub and 100 yards and a touchdown for Andre Johnson Jersey now could be Foster-heavy.
It's not quite a nightmare yet for those who drafted Andre Johnson Jersey with a Top 20 pick or Schaub with a Top 40 pick, but there could be some difficult decisions ahead -- decisions you never expected to pop up on you when you took those guys with a pick in the first four rounds.
Of course, if you drafted Foster, you already have a pretty good idea of what you've got on your team. Here's hoping that dream never ends.