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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%" class="forumline"> <tr> <th class="thCornerL" width="22%" height="26">Autor</th> <th class="thCornerR">Wiadomość</th> </tr> <tr> <td width="22%" align="left" valign="top" class="row1"><span class="name"><a name=""></a><b>csdgtwrrt</b></span></td> <td class="row1" height="28" valign="top"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="100%"><img src="http://picsrv.fora.pl/subBlack/images/icon_minipost.gif" width="12" height="9" alt="Post" title="Post" border="0" /><span class="postdetails">Wysłany: Sob 21:44, 18 Gru 2010<span class="gen"> </span> Temat postu: Ye Chuhua version of the timetable of Chinese prop</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><hr /></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"><span class="postbody">2008 house prices in decline, and Wang frequent ... ... so predicting China's property market in 2011 will be like Japan is facing collapse. <br /> <br /> is possible, of course, my assessment is that from next year, could collapse at any time. If you want to add a final period, China's high housing prices hold up, but four years . <br /> has several friends in my blog post, asked widespread these days, a \ China's real estate collapse in the end there is no timetable for deposit? The answer is yes, but the exact schedule of predicted this, I fear only God can do. <br /> do not people because of all the north to Beijing to buy a house, the whole of China and the world's hot money all went to Beijing real estate prices in Beijing to assert that is simply not possible drop, more not possible collapse. Beijing is indeed not the first crash, but if it is impossible to say that the collapse of the economy that is only on the economy from,<a href="http://www.moncler-coatsshop.com/moncler-boots-c-14.html" target="_blank" class="postlink">moncler quilted boot</a>, you forget that people have mental and psychological animals, once formed a nationwide panic, other collapse of the city of Beijing will promote collapse. Beijing is the strongest bastion of high prices, but the fortress would be the final blow for Dong Cunrui. <br /> <br /> 2006 年 also a lot of money into the real estate market; <br /> I also came out a timetable for China's property market crash it. Reference to the history of Japan and the United States: Japan's stock market crash of 1990, two years after the housing market collapse. US stock market crash of 1929, three years after the housing market collapse. <br /> <br /> the Chinese property market experienced in 2005 -2008 years, it seems remarkably similar to Japan. In the \ <br /> <br /> start from the appreciation of the renminbi in 2005, <br /> 20 century and the early 90s, the economy has experienced 30 years of soaring, the Japanese property and stock markets have collapsed, the economic crisis began to fall into a quagmire. Review of the Japanese property market in 1985 -1991 the trend can be found about gone through several important nodes: <br /> - <br /> This means that the property market in the stock market crash of their two or three years after the crash. This is no causal relationship between? It can be explained, the stock collapse led to annihilation of household wealth, tight all day led to a serious shortage of effective demand, real economic crisis. Start of the crisis in the real economy unprofitable factory owners who have put money into real estate for profit. These funds into real estate led to high, follow-up of saving the residents speculation . After a year or two, as the economy has been depressed,<a href="http://www.52ph.com/read.php?tid=1990" target="_blank" class="postlink">② crashed to the police come in vent</a>, factory owners still can not make money in the real economy, wage earners were unemployed or to take low wages, then, in order to maintain life, they have to start the house realized, the more people selling and more and more, until the raging to, and then set is there, the property market collapse. <br />the collapse of the property market next year <br /> China is sure to repeat Japan's property market collapse in 1992, tragedy. 2007 and 2008, the Shanghai index fell from 6,000 more than 1000 points, can be seen as the collapse; the same time the international financial crisis led to sharp drop in exports, External and real economy crisis began. Number of entities involved in the economic capital from the beginning of large-scale real estate. In 2009, despite GDP growth figures show eight security (a large part of the heap out of real estate) , but in fact the real economy crisis continues, a large number of business failures. In 2010, real economic crisis continues, began to close down business owners and unemployed house slaves because of the lack of cash to maintain life, had to sell the house . <br />Do not take the city of <br /> <br /> 2010 年 3 月 a \ It recalled in Japan 1985 -1991 real estate market trends, found in China in 2005 -2008 is quite similar to the real estate market trends, in addition to currency appreciation pressures faced by the low consumption rate, high savings rates, easing monetary policy, both countries is \ However, experts interviewed said that this assumption is not strict, but the Japanese then \ <br /> <br /> 1991 again, house prices in decline, the property market crash. <br /> Ye Chuhua version of the Chinese property market crash schedule - <br /> <br /> 2007; <br /> the \ savings rates, easing monetary policy,<a href="http://www.fashionman-shop.com/belts-bose-mens-belts-c-9_35.html" target="_blank" class="postlink">boss belts</a>, etc.,<a href="http://www.fashionman-shop.com/bags-armani-mens-bags-c-8_46.html" target="_blank" class="postlink">armani messenger bag</a>, are also quite similar. It is predicted that China's ultimate real estate crash in 2011. <br /> <br /> 1987 prices soaring in Japan 3 times; <br /> Ye Chuhua April 4 week of Oriental Morning Post Money column - <br /> 2011-2014 year, selling the property market gradually flooding back, until then no one disk crash. 2014 is the optimistic estimate, according to the above logic in Japan and the United States on expired the end of 2011, taking into account the particularity of China, more than it stays for three years. <br /> <br /> <br /> 1988 house prices in decline, and Wang pulled up prices; <br /> <br /> 1986 years has money into real estate; <br /> Appendix: Online real estate crash schedule <br /> real estate hold up to 2014 <br />soaring house prices in <br /> <br /> 1985 the yen began to appreciate; <br /> Ye Chuhua new book \ <br /> US exploitation of China's four coach, how do we do? China must learn to play virtual, fire with fire. America is a shell of printing money shopping economy, as long as we have learned to print money shopping, China surpassed the United States only overnight thing. Adam Smith's \ - \ <br /> <br /> limited supply of land does not bring something for the Chinese land more than a very, very high and land prices are fundamentally related. You look at Hainan know, only a few hundred million people in Hainan province, sparsely populated, house prices are not still fired up? Should return to my previous judgments, the metamorphosis of China funds piled high prices is the Ponzi scheme. <br /> to deceive, which is altered the idea of urbanization and real estate and property prices has little to do. As we explore the property market, are they not included the county, the majority of peasants in China's urbanization is achieved through the county. We explore the house, meaning the large and medium cities, housing prices, especially in big cities like Guangzhou north prices. China's housing prices in thousands of counties, the study is simply not within the scope. Farmers moved to town to live with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou housing prices have anything to do? Not in any way. <br /> ------------------------------ <br /> farmers move to cities to live there? Yes, a very small part of the college students mainly from rural areas, very few upstart. This did not constitute support for long-term reason for high prices.</span></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="1" class="spaceRow"><img src="http://picsrv.fora.pl/subBlack/images/spacer.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></td> </tr> </table>
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