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Wysłany: Nie 3:31, 27 Lut 2011 Temat postu: The 4thMbt Women shoes tembea black yellow |
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Above all, inflation is structural sex, outside removing provision, other category rises range is not big. Come so, how to judge prospective food price to go situation appear very crucial. Feed category to rise in price currently, have home's peculiar factor already,Mbt Women shoes tembea black yellow ,, if the sudden epidemic situation such as the La Er disease of the pig brings about pork price to rise considerably, also have internationally element, be like global food price rise. Nevertheless, compare with other commodity photograph, eat category value wave motion is big, periodic strong, rise contain provisionality.
Next, the influence that the RMB appreciates. The RMB appreciates to have a kind of constrictive effect to whole economy. On one hand, appreciate can weaken exit competition ability, reduce export thereby; On the other hand, because terms of trade is improved, the entrance can increase. Both closes, only outlet can drop, thereby total only outlet is abate also to the contribution of GDP, this meeting controls inflation. Additional, the RMB appreciates cause the importer with RMB valuation to taste price fall, such, inflation can reduce input sex. For instance foreign heavy goods especially when crude price rises, the RMB appreciates quickly,MBT Womens Kaya Shoes Blue White ,, can offset one part rises in price. I think, in future a paragraph of period, the RMB appreciates to still can become the Central Bank to control a of inflation main tool quickly.
The 3rd, the influence with external abate demand. Although Chinese economy high speed grows when, outside basically leaning, need to act well. Contrary, in economic overheat when, often be foreign trade adverse balance of trade. A lot of developing countries also present a such situation. Nevertheless,MBT Sirima women black ,, in last few years Chinese exit soars, the only outlet contribution to GDP is very remarkable. Data makes clear: China exports the proportion that holds GDP to rise to the 7.29 % 2006 from the 2.42 % 2000 completely. Before this year 3 quarters, favorable balance of trade is one hundred and eighty-five billion seven hundred and seventy million dollar, the proportion that holds GDP is 8.4% (exchange rate is pressed 7.5 will calculate) . It is important to outside seeing, need to comparative. Below this kind of circumstance, add as economy of next year world fast the likelihood puts delay, especially American economy is added fast glide, to Chinese GDP and inflation it is the pressure that be down.
The 4th, inflation and GDP growth are close correlation. Will tell commonly, GDP is added fast below fast circumstance, inflationary pressure can increase. Although we ever also appeared the circumstance of fast growth low inflation, but this one rule was not broken. Can deny current inflation rate to be added high with economy without the person fast matter high. So, with respect to future character, does GDP go situation how? It is, expand the demand of view according to science, the GDP of next year is added fast also should compare low this year arrive two percent (this year is overheat) ; 2 be,MBT Baridi Women Shoes White Red ,, global economy especially American economy is added fast glide will make Chinese economy is added fast put delay. 3 be, the depression that the economy after the Olympic Games may appear anticipates also can affect economy to add fast. Of course, next year government is changed,MBT Chapa Men Shoes Black Red ,, investment impulse still exists, but these how many meeting gets afore-mentioned elements (especially energy-saving the variation that reduces system of platoon and evaluation of local government achievement in one's post) tie. Accordingly, the GDP growth of next year can drop somewhat, can ease inflationary pressure thereby.
The 5th, produce can surplus problem to remain a kind of worry. Before a few years everybody is crying " produce can superfluous " . Add as economy fast accelerate, produce can superfluous state to appear to improve somewhat, but did not get be turninged round at all. Change according to sending appoint statistic, the phenomenon that at present the industrial product of 70 % above and the consumable of 80 % above exist to be begged for be more than in home market. Apparent, produce can superfluous pattern to be able to be opposite of relevant product rise in price form tremendous instruction. And add as economy fast put delay (the analysis before be like) , produce can superfluous condition the meeting is more serious, meet thereby " suppress " inflation.
Although be analysed according to above, china won't erupt overall inflation. But the job that controls inflation currently is very formidable still, control inflation to anticipate especially. Occasionally, inflationary acceleration is not the element because of main area (be like breach of supply and demand) , however because of psychological element. From this angle, want to pay close attention to a government to change the effect of an uncertainty that brings possibly particularly, the inflation that stabilizes people hard anticipates. see more Information:
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